Signing the Superstar: What Agencies Can Learn from Howie Roseman on Valuing Talent

Signing the Superstar: Why agencies must treat "untradeable" talent like a franchise asset

Hook: Agencies and talent managers: you’re exhausted by chasing signings that don’t move the needle, nervous about overpaying for influencers who fade, and unsure how to price exclusivity in 2026’s fast-moving marketplace. What if the playbook used by NFL GMs for rare, franchise-changing players could be applied to models and creators? Howie Roseman’s remark that A.J. Brown is "hard to find" offers a blueprint for recognizing and valuing what I call untradeable talent—individuals whose scarcity and impact demand different contracts, strategy and long-term thinking.

"It is hard to find great players in the NFL, and A.J. is a great player." — Howie Roseman, Philadelphia Eagles (Jan 15, 2026)

Why the A.J. Brown analogy matters for fashion agencies (2026 context)

In late 2025 and early 2026, brands accelerated a shift from one-off influencer activations to investing in long-term creative partners. At the same time, AI image generation, creator-first marketplaces and tighter advertising disclosure enforcement changed the value calculus. Under these conditions, agency leaders must differentiate between replaceable talent and untradeable talent: creators and models whose combination of look, audience, creative output and cultural timing cannot easily be sourced elsewhere.

Howie Roseman’s comment about scarcity in elite athletes maps directly to the talent market. Agencies that internalize scarcity—and price, protect and develop around it—win higher margins, stronger brand relationships and longer-term equity for their roster.

Defining "untradeable talent" for fashion and influencer management

Untradeable talent is talent whose market value is governed more by scarcity and cultural leverage than by standard supply-side metrics (followers, headshot quality). Characteristics include:

• Distinctive and hard-to-replicate aesthetic (face, walk, persona)
• High resonance with target consumer segments and tastemakers
• Proven cross-platform performance and conversion data
• Strong narrative potential (authentic backstory, trendsetting capacity)
• Low substitution elasticity—brands can’t easily swap them without losing cachet

The RARE valuation framework: a practical model

Use this four-factor framework—Rarity, Access, Resonance, Earnings potential—to evaluate candidates quickly and consistently.

Rarity (supply-side scarcity)

Estimate how many comparable talents exist at a similar level of craft and cultural fit. Assign a rarity score (1–5). Low scores indicate a large supply; high scores indicate near-unique talent—an A.J. Brown equivalent for fashion.

Access (contractual control)

Measure how much control the agency can secure: exclusive categories, territorial rights, image use, NFT/licensing controls, and AI likeness protections. Greater access raises valuation because the agency monetizes more revenue streams.

Resonance (audience quality and cultural impact)

Go beyond follower counts. Use engagement quality, cross-platform growth velocity, brand lift experiments and qualitative signals (editorial wins, runway demand, tastemaker mentions). Resonance is the cultural multiplier.

Earnings potential (monetizable pathways)

Calculate existing and projected revenue channels: campaigns, exclusives, licensing, merch, equity stakes in DTC launches, and live appearances. This anchors the investment decision.

From framework to numbers: a simple valuation formula

Translate RARE into a working valuation for negotiations. Use this baseline formula as a starting point:

Valuation = Base Fee × (1 + RarityMultiplier + ResonanceMultiplier) × BrandFit × (1 / RiskFactor)

Example with hypothetical numbers (annual):

• Base Fee (market-standard campaign fee): $75,000
• RarityMultiplier: 0.6 (60% premium for scarce talent)
• ResonanceMultiplier: 0.4 (40% premium for proven conversion)
• BrandFit: 1.1 (small uplift for excellent category match)
• RiskFactor: 1.05 (small discount for performance uncertainty)

Valuation = 75,000 × (1 + 0.6 + 0.4) × 1.1 × (1 / 1.05) ≈ $176,785

This modeling helps justify exclusivity premiums, longer-term retainers and equity offers. It also shows how a scarcity premium materially changes compensation outcomes.

Contract architecture for untradeable talent

When a talent is untradeable, standard one-year non-exclusive contracts fail to protect value. Consider these structures:

• Tiered exclusivity — Exclusive in high-value categories (beauty & fragrance, couture) but non-exclusive in others, with clear buyout pricing per category and term.
• Performance milestones — Milestone-based bonuses for campaign KPIs, runway bookings, and audience growth that reduce upfront risk.
• Long-term development deals — 2–4 year options with training, portfolio investment, and revenue-sharing on IP products.
• Equity & profit participation — For creators launching brands, exchange reduced fees for equity or profit share on SKUs.
• Likeness and AI carve-outs — Explicit rules for synthetic likeness, deepfake prevention, and monetization rights—critical with 2025–26 deepfake proliferation.
• Buyout and mobility clauses — Fixed buyout fees if the talent or brand wants to re-contract, preventing opportunistic poaching.

Negotiating exclusivity and pricing: tactics from the frontlines

Use these negotiation tactics to capture scarcity value while keeping deals marketable:

• Anchor with scarcity data — Present your RARE scoring and comparable market comps. Use editorial wins and conversion lift studies as evidence.
• Offer phased exclusivity — Start with a 6–12 month partial exclusivity window and expand if KPI thresholds are met.
• Include brand co-creation clauses — Require co-creative rights that pay the talent when their identity materially increases product sales.
• Structure buyouts upfront — Set transparent fees for early termination or category expansion to deter tempting trade offers.
• Sell the story, not just metrics — Luxury and fashion buyers pay for aura. Package narrative, editorial plan and exclusive content to justify premiums.

Influencer management in 2026: authenticity, data rights and AI

Late 2025 saw the FTC and multiple regional regulators tighten disclosure rules and issue guidance for AI-generated endorsements. By 2026, brands demand granular data and compliance guarantees. For untradeable influencers that command higher fees, agencies should secure:

• Transparent analytics access — Campaign-level conversion and cost-per-action (CPA) data sharing agreements to prove ROI.
• Clear AI and likeness policies — Who can create synthetic content, and how will revenue be shared from that content? See governance and model versioning guidance for content teams.
• Archival content licenses — Controlled, time-limited licenses for evergreen campaigns, with renewal options tied to performance.
• First-refusal rights — For certain product lines or brand verticals; helps pipeline long-term projects.

How to spot an A.J. Brown-level model or creator in scouting

Screening must move beyond aesthetic and follower counts. Ask these four diagnostic questions during scouting:

1. Does this person change buying behavior or just generate impressions? (Use micro-campaign tests to find out.)
2. Can their look and voice be extended across categories without diluting brand cachet?
3. Do tastemakers and industry insiders organically reference them? (Editors, stylists, photographers.)
4. Are they investable—will they accept co-creation, equity or longer development commitments?

Case study: Hypothetical signing that paid off

In late 2025 a boutique agency signed a rising model with 400K followers who had an unusual, era-defining look. The agency used a 3-year development deal: a modest retainer, category-limited exclusivity (beauty & fragrance), and 10% equity in an upcoming DTC skincare line. They built an editorial story and ran a small conversion test before the launch. In year two the model headlined a global beauty campaign that increased product launch revenue 85% above forecast. The equity and exclusivity premiums returned 5x the agency's early investment. The secret: the agency treated her as scarce, invested in narrative and insisted on co-ownership of IP.

Managing risk: what can go wrong and how to mitigate it

Risks include overvaluation, cultural backlash, platform algorithm shifts and regulatory fines. Practical mitigations:

• Cap upfront guarantees and link a portion of compensation to KPIs.
• Escrowed buyouts that release if performance thresholds aren’t met.
• Reputation clauses with graduated remedies—not immediate termination for every controversy.
• Compliance playbooks for influencer disclosures and AI usage to reduce regulatory exposure.

Operational changes agencies must make in 2026

To manage untradeable talent consistently, agencies need process upgrades:

• Data backbone — Centralize campaign KPIs, conversion tests, and cross-platform attribution.
• Talent development teams — Invest in creative directors, legal counsel and brand strategists who treat talent like IP.
• Flexible legal templates — Modular contracts with prebuilt exclusivity, AI, and equity clauses for rapid deployment.
• Scenario planning — Quarterly trade-off analyses: keep vs. sell, equity vs. cash, short-term fee vs. long-term upside.

Practical playbook: 10-step checklist to sign and protect untradeable talent

1. Score candidate using RARE—document the rationale.
2. Run a small conversion test (paid trial campaign) to validate resonance.
3. Propose a phased exclusivity plan with clear buyouts.
4. Offer a blended compensation package (retainer + performance bonuses + equity or revenue share).
5. Include AI and likeness safeguards in all agreements.
6. Secure analytics access and data-sharing commitments from brand partners.
7. Set up a development roadmap: editorials, runway, capsule drops.
8. Escrow or milestone-based payments to align incentives.
9. Build an exit/buyout ladder that increases value over time.
10. Document lessons and update the agency valuation models quarterly.

The cultural ROI: why scarcity beats scale for top-tier bookings

In an attention-saturated market, the highest returns often come from differentiation. Brands pay a premium for authenticity and a unique signal—what Roseman meant by "hard to find". When an agency secures and protects a cultural signal (a unique face, voice or persona), they create institutional value that extends beyond any single campaign.

Final thoughts: shift from transaction to franchise thinking

Howie Roseman’s simple observation about A.J. Brown is a strategic reminder: scarcity drives value. For fashion agencies in 2026, the question isn’t just how much to pay a star—it’s how to structure deals, legal protections and creative investments so that both agency and talent capture long-term upside. Treating a standout model or creator like a franchise asset—backing them with capital, creative and contractual protections—turns scarce talent into a durable competitive advantage.

Actionable next steps

Start today with three concrete actions:

• Audit your current roster with the RARE framework and flag candidates for "untradeable" status.
• Pilot a phased exclusivity + equity template with one high-potential talent this quarter.
• Build a compliance and AI-likeness addendum and include it in all new contracts by Q2 2026.

If you want a ready-to-use version of the RARE scoring sheet, the sample contract clauses for exclusivity and AI carve-outs, or a one-page model to present a scarcity premium to brand partners, we’ve prepared downloadable templates for agencies. Request them or book a 20-minute strategy review with our editorial team.

Call to action: Don’t let the next A.J. Brown-level model slip through your fingers. Request the RARE toolkit, update your contract templates, and start treating scarce talent as the franchise assets they are. Contact us to get the templates and a free 20-minute valuation review for one candidate on your roster.

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